The one thing we also need to know is how political bias is distributed among the betting population.

People’s desire for their candidate to win, affects their decision on whom they bet (amongst other things, but it looks like a driving factor).

Say Trumplican fanatics are much bigger betters (they are fanatics after all) than DoNothingats (they do nothing, so they don’t bet either), then the odds would be skewed towards Trump (assuming that the political preference is a driving decision-making factor).

So because the betting population was skewed in the first place, we still are no closer. All we know is that Trumplicans think that Trump is more likely to win.

BTW, I have a hunch that indeed more Trumplicans than DoNothingats are punters, but… I wouldn’t bet on it ;)